I. Several leading employment indicators showed resilience, outperforming the previous month overall.
1. ADP Employment Data: The U.S. private sector added 86,000 jobs in October, higher than the market expectation of 69,000; September's figure was also revised upward to 86,000.
2. JOLTS Job Openings: U.S. job openings rose to 7.523 million in September, up from 7.19 million in August, reaching the highest level since May.
3. ISM Employment Index: The manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment indices were 52.4 and 51.4 respectively, both above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction. The non-manufacturing employment index rebounded more than expected, reaching its highest level since February.
4. Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board's October consumer confidence survey showed that the gap between respondents who believed there were "ample" job opportunities and those who believed it was "difficult to find work" widened to 5.3 percentage points, up from 2.9 percentage points in the previous month, reaching the highest level since April, further confirming an improved employment environment.
II. Uncertainty Remains Regarding the Sustainability of Hiring Momentum
1. ADP Weekly Employment Slows: As of the week ending October 10, the four-week moving average of ADP employment growth fell to 16,750, down from 26,000 at the end of September.
2. ISM New Orders Index Declines: The non-manufacturing new orders index declined compared to the previous month, reflecting a weakening of business demand.
3. Leading Indicators and Non-Farm Payroll Data Are Not Necessarily Synchronized: Historically, there have been instances where ADP employment data improved, but non-farm payrolls failed to strengthen in the following month.
III. Stable Unemployment Rate is Key to Fed Rate Hike Expectations in December
1. The Fed is considering a December rate hike against the backdrop of a resilient economy and persistent inflation. US real GDP grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 3.4% in the third quarter, higher than the previous quarter's 2.2%; core PCE rose 3.1% year-on-year in September, still above the 2% inflation target.
2. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December are approximately 80%. Analysts believe that even with moderate non-farm payroll growth, as long as the unemployment rate remains around 4.2%, market expectations for a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve are unlikely to cool significantly. Further increases in rate hike expectations would require evidence of intensifying inflationary pressures, such as faster wage growth.
