早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，SC原油涨近10%，集运欧线涨超9%，乙二醇（EG）涨近6%，低硫燃料油（LU）、燃料油涨超5%，沥青涨超4%，塑料、苯乙烯（EB）涨超3%。跌幅方面，钯、沪银跌超4%，铂跌超3%，沪金跌超2%，碳酸锂、沪锡跌近2%，20号胶、国际铜、橡胶、沪铜、生猪跌超1%。

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said a US strike would only strengthen security in the Strait of Hormuz, that Iran has begun retaliatory actions, and that in the first phase it used a new air-defence system to shoot down the US military's 50th advanced MQ-9 drone.

Major banks and a Reuters survey expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR by 25bps in September. ASB projects a peak OCR around 3.3%; Westpac sees the OCR at about 3% by year‑end with a peak near 3.3%. CITIGROUP expects a 25bp move and says the RBNZ would still need three further hikes to return the OCR to neutral. A Reuters survey likewise forecasts 25bps in September, with over two‑thirds of respondents anticipating at least one more hike and year‑end OCR of 3% or higher. ANZ expects 25bps in September and likely another hike in October, saying the November election is unlikely to prevent a return to neutral. BNZ forecasts 25bps in September followed by 25bp increases at each meeting through May 2027, taking the OCR to a 4% peak. ING notes its May economic forecasts implied a year‑end OCR of about 3% and a flat path next year. Brown Brothers Harriman supports a 25bp move and flags scope for further tightening given inflation remaining above target and stronger domestic growth.